Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to total 11.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has posted far more air yards this season (119.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).
- Davante Adams’s 82.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 100th percentile for wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- Davante Adams has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (96.0).
- Davante Adams’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 62.7%.
- Davante Adams’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 8.49 yards-per-target compared to a 9.79 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards
102
Receiving Yards
