Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-136/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-136) after it opened @ 36.5 (-117).
Pros
- At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- In this game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.
- The model projects Dalton Kincaid to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense in this contest (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).
- Dalton Kincaid is positioned as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (65%) to tight ends this year (65.0%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 5.34 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
