Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 56.0 yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (83.0%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few less air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards