Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Malik WillisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 153.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 153.5 (-125) after it opened @ 155.5 (-125).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-most yards in football (261.0 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.
- The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 52.5 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Houston Texans defense this year (65.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
186
Passing Yards
186
Passing Yards
