Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 9.5 (-120) after it opened @ 9.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Ian Thomas’s 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.4.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.6 plays per game.
- Ian Thomas has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing a measly 65.1% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 24th percentile.
- Ian Thomas has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.69 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 18th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
