Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offensive strategy to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (229.0) this season than he did last season (191.0).
- This year, the anemic Cardinals defense has allowed a monstrous 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the league.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Ravens.
- The model projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.0 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
