Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-125) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Joe Burrow has attempted 39.5 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (292.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards