Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-110) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for a lot more yards per game (248.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 8.09 yards-per-target while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in football.
- Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 64.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
