NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 40.9% run rate.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
- Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 13.7 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- This year, the daunting Bills run defense has conceded a measly 5.34 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 29th-lowest rate in football.
Cons
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s running effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a mere 2.96 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 rate last year.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s 1.82 yards-after-contact this season reflects a a noteworthy reduction in his running ability over last season’s 3.81 figure.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
