Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).

Pros

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 40.9% run rate.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 13.7 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
This year, the daunting Bills run defense has conceded a measly 5.34 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 29th-lowest rate in football.

Cons

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
Rhamondre Stevenson’s running effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a mere 2.96 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 rate last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 1.82 yards-after-contact this season reflects a a noteworthy reduction in his running ability over last season’s 3.81 figure.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards