Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Melvin Gordon from EV Insight

Melvin GordonRushing Yards

Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (40.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has rushed for many fewer yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.04 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards