Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Melvin GordonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (40.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
- Melvin Gordon has rushed for many fewer yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.04 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
