Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I know it’s football Sunday, but we also have seven NBA games on tap today. Two are in the early window, and the other five are later in the day. We have quite a few betting edges to discuss.
If you are looking for all the plays from our FTNBets analysts, get over to the NBA Bet tracker. Here are my favorite spread bets for Sunday, as well as my top plays in the points, rebounds and assists prop bet markets.
Best NBA Spread bet
Utah Jazz +8.5
This line makes no sense to me. The Jazz have played really well the first two games, despite cleaning house in the offseason. They cut ties with Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. Many thought they would struggle, but so far they are 2-0 and outperforming expectations. This is a tough game vs. the Pelicans, but 8.5 seems a little high. One of these teams ends the day 3-0 to start the year, and while I’m not sure which it will be, I’m confident the Jazz are not overmatched here.
Best NBA points prop bet
Damian Lillard OVER 25.5
The Portland offense right now lacks scorers. Josh Hart, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons are good players, but they are not high-end scorers. That role falls on team leader Damian Lillard, and we watched him explode last time out for 40 points. I would not expect another 40, but if the Blazers are going to stay in games, Dame needs to be more of a scorer this year. He’s always had a No. 2, whether it be CJ McCollum or LaMarcus Aldridge earlier in his career. Without that legit No. 2 scorer, he’s going to have to look for his shot more this year or the Blazers are going to struggle.
Best NBA assist prop bet
Gordon Hayward OVER 4.5
LaMelo Ball has been out, and Terry Rozier rolled his ankle badly at the end of last game. Rozier limped through the final couple minutes very ineffectively, and I doubt he plays today. Gordon Hayward did more playmaking last game and finished with seven assists. If Rozier is out or limited, Hayward will be playing more point-forward today, which should give him more chances to create for himself and teammates.
Best NBA rebound prop bet
Evan Mobley UNDER 7.5 rebounds
Evan Mobley is a young emerging star, and last year he was a double-double guy when Jarrett Allen was out. This year though, he’s playing second fiddle in rebounding to both Allen and Kevin Love. He has not been hitting the glass as hard to start the season, as those other two seem to be the defensive rebounders on this team much of the time. Mobley is still being priced like a high-end rebounding option and has not been playing that role this year. I’m sticking with the under on this one again.
