Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 17.7 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (72.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.9% in games he has played).
- Jonathan Taylor has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (116.0).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
