Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It has been a wild first month of the 2022 NFL season. We quickly move on to Week 7. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there is tons of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord, I recommend doing so, as our experts find time throughout the week for open discussions. They also answer any questions you may have.
“Gross Bombs” will cover a trio of my favorite first-look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will also be located in our Bet Tracker.
Nick Chubb OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We begin the Week 7 installment of Gross Bombs with the first of three rushing props. Nick Chubb will get the Baltimore Ravens in a divisional matchup, and given the struggles Jacoby Brissett has shown in the passing game, the Browns should play a run-heavy game against the Ravens, who are currently 24th in DVOA against the run.
In fact, our Jeff Ratcliffe has Chubb projected for 94 rushing yards on 17.3 carries, so there’s a sizable edge in projections versus this line. Chubb went over this number with relative ease in each of his first five games this season, before falling short in Week 6, as the Browns were playing from behind virtually the entire game, limiting Chubb to just 12 carries.
Kenneth Walker OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, DraftKings)
Taking over for the injured Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Walker ran for 97 yards on 21 carries in his first start for Seattle. It’s the 21 carries that peaks my interest, as backup DeeJay Dallas only saw two carries, while Walker dominated the snap share at 69% to Dallas’ 34%. This essentially flipped the script on Penny’s snap share to Walker over the first four weeks.
Now Walker gets a Chargers defense ranking 22nd in DVOA against the run, while allowing 5.56 yards per carry through their first six games. Over the last four weeks, the Chargers have allowed three 100-plus yard runners (James Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Nick Chubb), while Latavius Murray logged 66 rushing yards in his Broncos debut on Monday Night Football. If Walker sees even 15 carries this week, he’ll only need to average 4.53 yards per tote to get over the 67.5-yard mark, which would be over a yard below the average yards per carry Los Angeles has surrendered thus far. Our FTN Data model has Walker projected for 75 rushing yards on 15.39 carries this week.
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, DraftKings)
Lastly, we move on to Ezekiel Elliott, who faces a Detroit Lions defense currently 31st in DVOA against the run. With Dak Prescott back, the run game should benefit with a better threat in the passing game, and the Cowboys are seven-point home favorites against the worst overall defense in the NFL.
Our FTN Data model has Elliott projected for 78.37 rushing yards on 16.1 carries, while Frank Brank’s NFL model has Elliott projected for 74 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Lions are allowing 5.48 yards per carry, third most in the NFL, while posting the lowest stuff rate (41.18%) and highest gash rate (16.34%).
