Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jaylen Warren

Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards

Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (28.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
In regards to executing run-blocking assignments (and the significance it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers grades out as the 10th-best in football last year.
The Rams defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.48 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
Jaylen Warren’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 3.14 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 rate last year.
The Los Angeles defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Rushing Yards