College Football Betting Preview: Ohio State vs. Penn State

The No. 7-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0) will look to win their first game at the Horseshoe since 2011 as they prepare for a blockbuster matchup against No. 3-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 3-0) on Saturday (noon ET, NBC).

Last season, the Buckeyes went into Happy Valley and defeated the Nittany Lions 44-31. C.J. Stroud carved up Penn State’s pass defense, completing 26-of-33 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown. Most of Stroud’s passing yards went to standout wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (10 receptions for 185 yards).

While Stroud isn’t at Ohio State anymore, Penn State will still have to deal with the new QB-WR duo of Kyle McCord and Harrison Jr. The duo led Ohio State to a 41-7 road win over Purdue last week. As for Penn State, they had a dominant 63-0 home win over UMass last weekend. 

The Nittany Lions are 4.5-point road underdogs heading into Saturday’s contest, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. However, they are also a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season, which bettors should remember.

Below, we’ll break down this pivotal Big Ten conference matchup, which will impact the College Football Playoff as we get further into conference play.

Penn State vs. Ohio State

Spread: Penn State +4.5 (-110); Ohio State -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Penn State +164; Ohio State -198
Total: Over 45.5 (-110); Under 45.5 (-110)

For Penn State to get into the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game this year, they must defeat Ohio State on the road Saturday. Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin is 1-8 against the Buckeyes, which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in Penn State.

Penn State will hope that sophomore QB Drew Allar can give Franklin his second win over Ohio State. Allar has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,254 yards and 12 TDs and has been sacked four times this season. Between the protection from his offensive line and ability to play mistake-free football, Penn State has a serious shot to make the College Football Playoff.

However, for the Nittany Lions to win on Saturday, they will need their running game to show up. This season, Penn State averages 203.3 rushing yards per game, which will test Ohio State’s run defense (109.2 yards per game). Sophomore RB Kaytron Allen leads the team with 375 yards and three touchdowns on 78 carries. 

In last year’s meeting against Ohio State, Allen produced 89 total yards (76 rushing) and two touchdowns. If Penn State can get into second/third and short, they can keep this explosive Buckeyes offense off the field.

Speaking of Ohio State, they ushered in a new era at QB with Kyle McCord, who has had some growing pains, but he’s been good enough to start the season. McCord is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,651 yards, 11 touchdowns and an interception. The Buckeyes O-line will have its work cut out for them, as this Penn State defense is one of the best in the country.

This season, the Nittany Lions are leading the country in yards allowed (193.7) and are ranked second in sacks (27) and points allowed (8.0). Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has done a phenomenal job with this unit.

Looking forward to Saturday, Diaz must get pressure on McCord because the Buckeyes have a great wide receiver duo with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Harrison receives all the attention, but Egbuka is a future NFL WR too. The junior wide receiver did not play in last week’s game due to a leg injury he suffered on Oct. 7 against Maryland. 

Ohio State hopes to have Egbuka and RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams on the field for this colossal matchup. If Egbuka can’t go, Penn State still has to watch out for senior tight end Cade Stover, who scored two touchdowns last week against Purdue and has played a noticeable role in Ohio State’s passing game.

Saturday’s game in Columbus should be a tremendous test as both teams try to stake their claim as one of the best squads in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS this season, while the Buckeyes are 3-2-1 ATS. 

As for the O/U betting trends, the Buckeyes are 1-5 to the over, and the Nittany Lions are 4-2. The under 45.5 points is the best play, as you have two young quarterbacks and two stellar defenses. Penn State is only giving up 8.0 points per game, while the Buckeyes have allowed 9.7 points per game this season and 154.3 yards per game (fourth-best in the country).

Best Bet: UNDER 45.5 points