Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential target this season (86.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (73.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 7.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

Zach Ertz’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 5.83 yards-per-target compared to a 6.84 mark last season.
Zach Ertz has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 21st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) versus TEs this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (54.9%) versus tight ends this year (54.9%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 4.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards