Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has accrued significantly more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.6%) to tight ends this year (80.6%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 66.0%.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 6.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
