Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-120).

Pros

The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has accrued significantly more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.6%) to tight ends this year (80.6%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 66.0%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 6.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards