NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Colts vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 66.0 per game on average).
- This week, David Njoku is anticipated by the model to finish in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Browns grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (62.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a running game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- David Njoku has been a much smaller piece of his team’s passing game this year (14.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.3%).
- David Njoku has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (45.0 per game).
- David Njoku has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (32.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
