MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Colby ParkinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Colby Parkinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-113) after it opened @ 12.5 (-113).
Pros
- Right now, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
- Colby Parkinson profiles as one of the most efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging an impressive 8.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 89th percentile.
- With an outstanding 6.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Colby Parkinson stands as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL in space.
- When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Arizona’s group of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the league.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
- Colby Parkinson has been much more involved in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 53.7% of snaps compared to just 40.0% last year.
- Colby Parkinson’s 74.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a a noteworthy decline in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 78.9% figure.
- This year, the fierce Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a paltry 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 10th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
