Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-109/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-118) after it opened @ 23.5 (-113).

Pros

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
With a remarkable 67.1% Route Participation% (75th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
In this week’s game, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the model to place in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.2 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
This year, the shaky Patriots defense has yielded a massive 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-worst in the league.

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
With a poor 3.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs in football in space.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards