NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-109/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-118) after it opened @ 23.5 (-113).
Pros
- Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
- With a remarkable 67.1% Route Participation% (75th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
- In this week’s game, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the model to place in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.2 targets.
- When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
- This year, the shaky Patriots defense has yielded a massive 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-worst in the league.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
- With a poor 3.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs in football in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
