Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.3 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has totaled far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
- D.J. Moore’s 61.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 71.9.
- D.J. Moore has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (58.6%) versus wide receivers this year (58.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
