Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.3 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has totaled far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore’s 61.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 71.9.
D.J. Moore has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (58.6%) versus wide receivers this year (58.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards