Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brock Purdy has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
With a remarkable 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (82nd percentile) this year, Brock Purdy stands as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.
Brock Purdy’s passing efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 9.01 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.97 rate last season.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (79.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the projection model to run only 62.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Brock Purdy is expected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.3.

Projection

THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards