Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 277.5 (-133) after it opened @ 288.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (318.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Cons

The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 183.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.36 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards