Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-115) after it opened @ 222.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, giving up 8.26 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 6th-worst group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a lowly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
