Week 7 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

We enjoyed our profit with the Week 6 NFL moneyline underdog picks. 

Houston came through as a home underdog to a New Orleans team playing its fourth road game in five weeks. While quarterback C.J. Stroud finally produced a turnover, Houston forced a fumble on the Saints interception return to ensure possession never officially changed. First-year head coach DeMeco Ryans enters the Week 7 bye with a respectable 3-3 record. 

Chicago succumbed to Minnesota 19-13 and lost quarterback Justin Fields in the process. Fields finished just 6-of-10 for 58 yards while rookie backup Tyson Bagent failed to impress. The loss of Fields severely limited our chances of cashing the +128 play on the three-point underdog Bears. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 7 of the 2023 season

Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

+104, Unibet

Green Bay’s bye week rest advantage is mitigated by Denver having played Thursday night. While the Broncos defense still ranks dead-lost across the board in overall, rushing and passing DVOA, there were signs of life in a true road matchups against Kansas City in Week 6. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sacked twice and intercepted, while being held to just two field goals, at home, in the second half. Broncos lead running back Javonte Williams finally looked healthy, which is a good sign against a Green Bay run defense that ranks just 26th in DVOA this season. 

This is actually a good spot for both head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson. In his career, Payton is 21-13-1 (61.8%) as an underdog with a losing streak. While the Broncos have lost in both of those situations this season, it was also road games against two of the best teams in the NFL, Miami and Kansas City. As a quarterback on a multiple-game losing streak, Wilson is actually 7-1 (87.5%) ATS, with his only loss being at Miami this season (BetLabs).

It’s tough to back the Broncos amidst their continual struggles, but the prospects of quarterback Jordan Love and a Green Bay team that has lost three of their last four matchups is anything but daunting. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.04 Units

Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

+202, Unibet

I’m backing the Chargers to pull the upset at Arrowhead Stadium against their main AFC West rival. 

Los Angeles is one of the few teams that enjoys success as an underdog against Kansas City, especially on the road. Since 2003, the Chargers are 7-3-1 (63.6%) ATS as an underdog of five points or more against Kansas City and are 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog at Kansas City in their last seven trips to Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs still have serious problems with their passing attack, as illustrated by their Week 6 struggles against Denver. They have yet to establish a leading wideout, and their reliance on Travis Kelce should be tested against Chargers safety Derwin James. In last season’s matchup in Kansas City, the Chargers held Kelce to just five receptions and 51 receiving yards. That was a much healthier Kelce, operating in a passing attack that was getting much better wideout production with veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Seven of the last nine matchups between these two teams have been decided by one score or less, with Los Angeles winning two of the last three and three of the last five at Kansas City. 

I’m backing the Chargers as a big moneyline underdog, getting over +200 odds at Unibet.

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 2.02 Units