Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-121) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential target this year (62.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox has compiled far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
- Dawson Knox’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a mere 6.72 yards-per-target vs a 8.90 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
