Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 17.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
