Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 17.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards