Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kenny Pickett from EV Insight

Kenny PickettPassing Yards

Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-120/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 237.5 (-120) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 197.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (64.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 5.86 yards-per-target: the least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards