Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-120/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 237.5 (-120) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 197.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (64.4%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 5.86 yards-per-target: the least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
