Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-120).

Pros

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to notch 14.6 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (51.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.9%).
Jeffery Wilson has run for substantially more yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards