Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Giants vs. Ravens
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 43.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (128 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
