Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).

Pros

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 43.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (128 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards