Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Darrell Henderson from EV Insight

Darrell HendersonRushing Yards

Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-135) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Rams are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to garner 13.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much bigger part of his team’s run game this week (54.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.0% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (142 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Darrell Henderson has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards