Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-120) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has done a better job at generating extra ground yardage this year, totaling 3.43 yards-after-contact vs a 2.39 rate last year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have incorporated some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (36.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 76 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Buffalo Bills defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards
36
Rushing Yards
