Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cam AkersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Panthers
Right now, Cam Akers’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Rams are a giant 10.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to notch 16.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Cam Akers has earned 55.8% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (142 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
- Cam Akers’s running efficiency (3.09 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (5th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
