Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-118/-112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-112) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 9.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.5% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has accrued a monstrous 100.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
