Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Panthers
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Higbee has been a more important option in his offense’s air attack this year (25.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).
- Tyler Higbee has posted a whopping 35.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Rams are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 71.0%.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
