Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has been a more important option in his offense’s air attack this year (25.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).
Tyler Higbee has posted a whopping 35.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Rams are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 71.0%.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards