Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 74.2% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accrue 4.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) versus tight ends this year.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards