Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-120) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to earn 9.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated many more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce’s 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 49.4.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) vs. tight ends this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 5.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
