Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-120) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to earn 9.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accumulated many more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce’s 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 49.4.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 5.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards