Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 86.5 (-131) after it opened @ 87.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 11.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Stefon Diggs has accrued far fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts this year, conceding 7.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards