Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-120/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-120) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 3.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki’s sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 83.7%.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 9.74 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.85 mark last season.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (54.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
Mike Gesicki has compiled far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards