Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-114) after it opened @ 84.5 (-120).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Justin Jefferson has notched quite a few more receiving yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) to wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards