Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for JuJu Smith-Schuster from EV Insight

JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards

Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this season (18.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 142.0) versus WRs this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, yielding 7.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards