Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-142) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Hayden Hurst has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (75.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to garner 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Hayden Hurst has accrued a monstrous 24.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Hayden Hurst has been among the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 14th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards