Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 6.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has accrued a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
George Kittle’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 7.55 yards-per-target vs a 9.36 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards