Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 6.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has accrued a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
- George Kittle’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 7.55 yards-per-target vs a 9.36 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
