Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has posted quite a few less air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert’s 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.8.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 32.0) to tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards