Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dallas Goedert has posted quite a few less air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- Dallas Goedert’s 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.8.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 32.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
