Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup quarterback P.J. Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a huge 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.

Cons

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
D.J. Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore’s 58.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 71.9.
D.J. Moore has totaled quite a few less receiving yards per game (40.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
D.J. Moore’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.7% to 51.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards