Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup quarterback P.J. Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a huge 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- D.J. Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
- D.J. Moore’s 58.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 71.9.
- D.J. Moore has totaled quite a few less receiving yards per game (40.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
- D.J. Moore’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.7% to 51.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
