Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
- In this game, Chris Godwin is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
- Chris Godwin has accrued significantly more air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
- With an exceptional 63.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (83rd percentile) this year, Chris Godwin stands among the leading WRs in the league in the league.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
- This year, the stout Lions pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 2.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
