Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
In this game, Chris Godwin is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
Chris Godwin has accrued significantly more air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
With an exceptional 63.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (83rd percentile) this year, Chris Godwin stands among the leading WRs in the league in the league.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
This year, the stout Lions pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 2.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards