Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
In this contest, Nico Collins is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 85th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.
Nico Collins’s 88.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a a substantial improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 48.0 figure.

Cons

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Texans as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.8% pass rate.
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a mere 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans’s group of LBs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards