Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-125) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much smaller part of his team’s pass game this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (34.6% in games he has played).
- CeeDee Lamb’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 58.6%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching just 7.32 yards-per-target vs a 9.37 figure last season.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (56.6%) to wide receivers this year (56.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
