Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-133) after it opened @ 268.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has passed for quite a few more yards per game (268.0) this year than he did last year (219.0).
Matthew Stafford’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 69.5%.

Cons

The Rams are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards